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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Central Coast Mariners — AFC Champions League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
10/22/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 3SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG53%
×Draw22%
Central Coast Mariners25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.04
Central Coast Mariners
1.36

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 50% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32
Central Coast Mariners
1.25

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.48
Central Coast Mariners
2.75

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
75%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Central Coast Mariners
78%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
47%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
31%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
87%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
60%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
33%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
74%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
39%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
68%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.25 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
53%
level
22%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
25%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Central Coast Mariners

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Central Coast Mariners 3-2 in AFC Champions League on October 22, 2024.

The match was played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Shanghai.