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Shanghai Shenxin vs Zhejiang Yiteng — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
5/13/2018League OneLeague One · Round 11Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin43%
×Draw24%
Zhejiang Yiteng33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.65
Zhejiang Yiteng
1.42

Shanghai Shenxin creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Zhejiang Yiteng
0.80

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Zhejiang Yiteng
2.13

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Zhejiang Yiteng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
67%
Shanghai Shenxin or Zhejiang Yiteng
76%
Draw or Zhejiang Yiteng
57%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
22%
Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
81%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
49%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
23%
Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
76%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
41%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
57%
Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Zhejiang Yiteng away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 0.80 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
43%
level
24%
Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
33%

Shanghai Shenxin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shanghai Shenxin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Zhejiang Yiteng

Shanghai Shenxin beat Zhejiang Yiteng 1-0 in League One on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai).