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Shanghai Shenxin vs Sichuan Longfor — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
3/17/2019League OneLeague One · Round 2Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin40%
×Draw23%
Sichuan Longfor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.65
Sichuan Longfor
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Sichuan Longfor
1.07

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Sichuan Longfor
2.13

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Sichuan Longfor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
64%
Shanghai Shenxin or Sichuan Longfor
77%
Draw or Sichuan Longfor
60%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
20%
Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
81%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
49%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
23%
Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
79%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
46%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
53%
Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Sichuan Longfor away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Sichuan Longfor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.07 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
40%
level
23%
Sichuan Longfor scores more
36%

Shanghai Shenxin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenxin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shanghai Shenxin 0–0 Sichuan Longfor

Shanghai Shenxin and Sichuan Longfor drew 0-0 in League One on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.