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Shanghai Shenxin vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
8/31/2019League OneLeague One · Round 24Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin37%
×Draw24%
liaoning hongyun FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.52
liaoning hongyun FC
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
61%
Shanghai Shenxin or liaoning hongyun FC
76%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
63%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
18%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
78%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
45%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
20%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
79%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
46%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
49%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
37%
level
24%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
39%

liaoning hongyun FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs liaoning hongyun FC

liaoning hongyun FC beat Shanghai Shenxin 4-1 in League One on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.