Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai Shenxin vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
3/30/2019League OneLeague One · Round 3Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin31%
×Draw25%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.28
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.57

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
56%
Shanghai Shenxin or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
75%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
69%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
13%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
72%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
37%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
14%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
79%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
46%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
41%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
31%
level
25%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
44%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Shanghai Shenxin beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-1 in League One on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.