Shanghai Shenxin 1–4 Changchun Yatai

Shanghai Shenxin

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Changchun Yatai

3/9/2019

League One · Round 1Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin24%

×Draw22%

Changchun Yatai54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenxinExpected goals in this matchChangchun Yatai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.96

Shanghai Shenxin

1.24

Changchun Yatai

1.96

Changchun Yatai creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.17

creates per match

1.90

2.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin

1.17

Changchun Yatai

1.90

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin

2.03

Changchun Yatai

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Changchun Yatai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw

46%

Shanghai Shenxin or Changchun Yatai

78%

Draw or Changchun Yatai

76%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+

10%

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals

71%

Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals

35%

Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals

13%

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

86%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

58%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)

31%

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Changchun Yatai attack 1.90 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more

24%

level

22%

Changchun Yatai scores more

54%

Changchun Yatai at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff