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Shanghai Shenshui vs Nantong Haimen Codion — FA Cup 2019

Shanghai Shenshui
Shanghai Shenshui
FT
0 – 1
Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
5/20/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundQingpu Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shanghai Shenshui44%
×Draw30%
Nantong Haimen Codion26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenshui
1.17
Nantong Haimen Codion
0.83

Shanghai Shenshui creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenshui
1.33
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.00

allows per match

Shanghai Shenshui
0.67
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.00

finishing

Shanghai Shenshui+0.00on par
Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenshui ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenshui or draw
74%
Shanghai Shenshui or Nantong Haimen Codion
70%
Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion
56%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenshui wins by 2+
19%
Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenshui 1+ goals
69%
Shanghai Shenshui 2+ goals
33%
Shanghai Shenshui 3+ goals
11%
Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
56%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
20%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenshui (draw refunded)
63%
Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenshui at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenshui attack 1.33 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.00 + Shanghai Shenshui defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shanghai Shenshui scores more
44%
level
30%
Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
26%

Shanghai Shenshui at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shanghai Shenshui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenshui vs Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Shanghai Shenshui 1-0 in FA Cup on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Qingpu Sports Center in Shanghai.