Shanghai Shenhua 0–0 Wuhan Zall: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Zall

7/28/2021

Super League · Round 9Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua52%

×Draw23%

Wuhan Zall25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchWuhan Zall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.14

Shanghai Shenhua

1.77

Wuhan Zall

1.14

Shanghai Shenhua creates 55% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 53 away

1.86

creates per match

1.04

1.23

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.86

Wuhan Zall

1.04

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Wuhan Zall

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Wuhan Zall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

75%

Shanghai Shenhua or Wuhan Zall

77%

Draw or Wuhan Zall

48%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

29%

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

83%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

53%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

26%

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

68%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

32%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

68%

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wuhan Zall attack 1.04 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

52%

level

23%

Wuhan Zall scores more

25%

Shanghai Shenhua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Wang Zhifeng

Wuhan Zall · G

8.3

Match Events

30'

Shilin Sun

45'

Chenjie Zhu

46'

Cao Yunding← Sun Shilin

46'

A. Mierzejewski← C. Bassogog

46'

Luo Yi← Zhao Honglüe

59'

Huang Zichang← Liu Yun

62'

Yinong Tian

66'

Ma Zhen← Li Shuai

66'

Feng Xiaoting← Zhu Chenjie

77'

Ye Chongqiu← Li Hang

79'

Bi Jinhao← Kim Shin-Wook

80'

Adrian Mierzejewski

89'

Zhifeng Wang

90+3'

Giovanni MorenoPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiWuhan

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots6

8Corners2

15Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target0

7Off Target4

5Blocked2

12Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

457Total Passes297

383Accurate Passes220

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2