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Shanghai Shenhua vs Vissel Kobe — AFC Champions League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
2/18/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 8Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua33%
×Draw24%
Vissel Kobe43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.38
Vissel Kobe
1.60

Vissel Kobe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.60
Vissel Kobe
1.54

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.67
Vissel Kobe
1.15

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
57%
Shanghai Shenhua or Vissel Kobe
76%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
67%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
15%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
75%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
40%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
16%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
80%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
47%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
44%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
33%
level
24%
Vissel Kobe scores more
43%

Vissel Kobe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Shanghai Shenhua 4–2 Vissel Kobe

Shanghai Shenhua beat Vissel Kobe 4-2 in AFC Champions League on February 18, 2025.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.