Shanghai Shenhua 1–4 Ulsan Hyundai FC

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ulsan Hyundai FC

12/3/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua37%

×Draw24%

Ulsan Hyundai FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchUlsan Hyundai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.57

Shanghai Shenhua

1.54

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

1.60

creates per match

1.48

1.67

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.60

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

61%

Shanghai Shenhua or Ulsan Hyundai FC

76%

Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC

63%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

18%

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

79%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

45%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

20%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

79%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

46%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

49%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

37%

level

24%

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

39%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff