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Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
10/20/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua51%
×Draw23%
Tianjin Songjiang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.88
Tianjin Songjiang
1.31

Shanghai Shenhua creates 44% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
73%
Shanghai Shenhua or Tianjin Songjiang
77%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
49%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
28%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
85%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
56%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
29%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
73%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
38%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
65%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
51%
level
23%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
27%

Shanghai Shenhua at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Songjiang

Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Songjiang drew 1-1 in Super League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium in Shanghai.