Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shenzhen Ruby FC

Yu Hanchao 41'

10/24/2021

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsJinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua55%

×Draw24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.95

Shanghai Shenhua

1.70

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.95

Shanghai Shenhua creates 79% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

0.80

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.20

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.80

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.10

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

79%

Shanghai Shenhua or Shenzhen Ruby FC

76%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

45%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

30%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

82%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

51%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

61%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

25%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

72%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.20 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.80 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

55%

level

24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

21%

Shanghai Shenhua at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Yu Hanchao

56'

A. Mierzejewski← Zhang Lu

59'

Yuan Mincheng

72'

Li Yuanyi← Yuan Mincheng

72'

Sun Ke← Wang Yongpo

81'

Yang Xu← G. Moreno

90+1'

Qin Sheng← A. NDoumbou

Shanghai

Shenzhen

1

Lu

25

Haolun

26

▼

Mincheng

2

Shinar

39

▼

6

14

8

27

11

7

19

6

13

22

38

10

▼

Moreno

25

Xinli

11

⚽

Hanchao

8

▼

Lu

7

▼

N'Doumbou

14

Doumbouya

Manager: Yijun Mao

56'▲A. Mierzejewski←▼Zhang Lu

81'▲Yang Xu←▼G. Moreno

90+1'▲Qin Sheng←▼A. NDoumbou

Shanghai Shenhua substitutes

9Mierzejewski15Xu26Sheng1Zhen3Jinhao18Yi23Jiajun28Yunding33Haijian37Shilin16Yunqiu29Longhai

Manager: Carlos Granero

72'▲Li Yuanyi←▼Yuan Mincheng

72'▲Sun Ke←▼Wang Yongpo

Shenzhen Ruby FC substitutes

28Yuanyi38Ke13Haofeng16Dalun17Minzhe21Zhipeng23Wei24Xin30Ruifeng31Zixiang18Xiangyu

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shanghai Shenhua beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 in FA Cup on October 24, 2021.

Goals: Yu Hanchao (41').

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC