Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Shenyang Urban: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Shenyang Urban

Rafael Ratao 38', 9'

Jin Shunkai 17'

Tian Yuda 87'

4/18/2026

Super League · Round 6Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua65%

×Draw19%

Shenyang Urban16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchShenyang Urban

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.05

Shanghai Shenhua

2.27

Shenyang Urban

1.05

Shanghai Shenhua creates 116% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

2.59

creates per match

1.19

0.92

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.59

Shenyang Urban

1.19

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

0.92

Shenyang Urban

1.95

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.03on par

Shenyang Urban-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Shenyang Urban →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

84%

Shanghai Shenhua or Shenyang Urban

81%

Draw or Shenyang Urban

35%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

42%

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

90%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

66%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

39%

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

65%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

28%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

80%

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.92 · 16 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.59 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.27

Shenyang Urban attack 1.19 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

65%

level

19%

Shenyang Urban scores more

16%

Shanghai Shenhua at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Xue Qinghao

Shanghai Shenhua · G

8.2

Match Events

9'

Rafael Ratao

17'

Jin Shunkai↳ Wang Haijian

38'

Rafael Ratao↳ M. Gueye

46'

Xie Pengfei← J. Teixeira

46'

Xu Dong← Li Haoran

46'

A. Kouame← Felipe

59'

Chen Binbin← G. Mbenza

65'

Pan Ximing← Li Tixiang

67'

Liu Chengyu← M. Gueye

67'

Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi

73'

Yang Zexiang← W. Manafa

73'

Xu Haoyang← Rafael Ratao

84'

Tian Yuda← T. Kunimoto

87'

Tian Yuda↳ Chen Binbin

90'

Dinghao Yan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiShenyang

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots18

3.78Expected Goals (xG)2.25

3Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots18

8On Target9

9Off Target5

2Blocked4

14Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

466Total Passes516

394Accurate Passes447

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1