Shanghai Shenhua 3–0 Qingdao Huanghai

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Huanghai

L. Doumbouya 80', 70'

A. Mierzejewski 32' (pen)

12/12/2021

Super League · Relegation Round - 1Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua60%

×Draw22%

Qingdao Huanghai18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchQingdao Huanghai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.98

Shanghai Shenhua

1.96

Qingdao Huanghai

0.98

Shanghai Shenhua creates 100% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 22 away

1.86

creates per match

0.73

1.23

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.86

Qingdao Huanghai

0.73

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

82%

Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao Huanghai

78%

Draw or Qingdao Huanghai

40%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

36%

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

86%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

58%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

31%

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

62%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

26%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

77%

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.96

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.73 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

60%

level

22%

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

18%

Shanghai Shenhua at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. Doumbouya

Shanghai Shenhua · F

9.7

Match Events

21'

Zhu Ting← Zou Zheng

29'

Lonsana DoumbouyaPenalty awarded

32'

A. MierzejewskiPenalty

36'

Ting Zhu

43'

Liu Jiashen← J. Vuković

45+5'

Chenjie Zhu

46'

Yang Yu← Wang Wei

68'

Peng Lü

70'

L. Doumbouya

75'

Zhang Lu← D. Wang Yi

80'

L. Doumbouya↳ Yu Hanchao

82'

Lonsana DoumbouyaGoal confirmed

85'

Peng Xinli← A. Mierzejewski

85'

Bi Jinhao← L. Doumbouya

88'

Fulangxisi Aidi← Zhu Baojie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiQingdao

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots7

8Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots7

9On Target2

7Off Target5

4Blocked0

12Inside Box3

8Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

483Total Passes282

408Accurate Passes199

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2