Shanghai Shenhua 4–1 Pohang Steelers

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pohang Steelers

Gao Tianyi 84'

C. Malele 82' (pen), 71'

André Luís 64'

Jorge Teixeira 53'

9/17/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 1Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua45%

×Draw24%

Pohang Steelers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.33

Shanghai Shenhua

1.65

Pohang Steelers

1.33

Shanghai Shenhua creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.60

Pohang Steelers

1.00

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

Pohang Steelers

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

69%

Shanghai Shenhua or Pohang Steelers

76%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

55%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

23%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

81%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

49%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

23%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

74%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

38%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

59%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pohang Steelers attack 1.00 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

45%

level

24%

Pohang Steelers scores more

31%

Shanghai Shenhua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Malele

Shanghai Shenhua · F

8.3

Match Events

45+2'

Chan-hee Han

46'

C. Malele← Wang Haijian

46'

Jeong Jae-Hee← Kang Hyeon-Je

46'

Eo Jeong-Won← Jo Seong-Jun

53'

Jorge Teixeira↳ An Jae-Jun

64'

André Luís

68'

Min Sang-Gi← Choi Hyun-Woung

71'

Gao Tianyi← Fei Nanduo

71'

C. Malele↳ Yang Zexiang

73'

Kim In-Sung← An Jae-Jun

77'

Lee Tae-seok

80'

Ibrahim AmadouPenalty confirmed

82'

C. MalelePenalty

83'

Kim Dong-Jin← Kim Jong-Woo

84'

Gao Tianyi

88'

Yu Hanchao← Wu Xi

88'

Xie Pengfei← João Teixeira

90+4'

Chan Shinichi← Xu Haoyang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiPohang

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots14

1Corners8

5Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots14

5On Target6

1Off Target7

1Blocked1

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

374Total Passes424

308Accurate Passes353

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3