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Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida Zelvia — AFC Champions League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
2/10/2026AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 7Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua22%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
0.90
Machida Zelvia
1.53

Machida Zelvia creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.60
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.67
Machida Zelvia
0.20

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
48%
Shanghai Shenhua or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
78%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
7%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
59%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
23%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
6%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
78%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
45%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
30%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
22%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
52%

Machida Zelvia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Shanghai Shenhua 0–2 Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 in AFC Champions League on February 10, 2026.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.