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Shanghai Shenhua vs Jiangsu Suning — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
9/15/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua44%
×Draw24%
Jiangsu Suning32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.66
Jiangsu Suning
1.39

Shanghai Shenhua creates 19% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 39 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Jiangsu Suning
1.54

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Jiangsu Suning
1.46

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Jiangsu Suning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
68%
Shanghai Shenhua or Jiangsu Suning
76%
Draw or Jiangsu Suning
56%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
23%
Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
81%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
49%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
23%
Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
75%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
40%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
58%
Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
44%
level
24%
Jiangsu Suning scores more
32%

Shanghai Shenhua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Jiangsu Suning

Shanghai Shenhua and Jiangsu Suning drew 1-1 in Super League on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium in Shanghai.