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Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
11/4/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua45%
×Draw23%
Hangzhou Greentown31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.75
Hangzhou Greentown
1.42

Shanghai Shenhua creates 23% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 73 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Hangzhou Greentown
1.60

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown
1.63

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
69%
Shanghai Shenhua or Hangzhou Greentown
77%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
55%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
24%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
83%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
52%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
25%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
76%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
41%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
59%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.60 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
45%
level
23%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
31%

Shanghai Shenhua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown

Hangzhou Greentown beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 in Super League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.