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Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
9/13/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Huanglong Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown45%
×Draw22%
Shanghai Shenhua33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.92
Shanghai Shenhua
1.60

Hangzhou Greentown creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.35
Shanghai Shenhua
1.85

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.36
Shanghai Shenhua
1.48

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown-0.35scores less
Shanghai Shenhua-0.42scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
67%
Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenhua
78%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
55%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
25%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
85%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
57%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
30%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
80%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
47%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
58%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.35 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.92

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
45%
level
22%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
33%

Hangzhou Greentown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Hangzhou Greentown 3–4 Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-3 in Super League on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium in Hangzhou.