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Shanghai Shenhua vs FC Seoul — AFC Champions League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
10/22/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 3Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua47%
×Draw24%
FC Seoul29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.74
FC Seoul
1.33

Shanghai Shenhua creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.60
FC Seoul
1.00

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.67
FC Seoul
1.88

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
71%
Shanghai Shenhua or FC Seoul
76%
Draw or FC Seoul
53%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
25%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
82%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
52%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
25%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
74%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
38%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
62%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + FC Seoul defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.74

FC Seoul attack 1.00 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
47%
level
24%
FC Seoul scores more
29%

Shanghai Shenhua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs FC Seoul

Shanghai Shenhua beat FC Seoul 2-0 in AFC Champions League on October 22, 2025.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.