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Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
8/26/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua58%
×Draw22%
Beijing Renhe20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.92
Beijing Renhe
1.02

Shanghai Shenhua creates 88% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
80%
Shanghai Shenhua or Beijing Renhe
78%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
42%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
34%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
85%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
57%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
30%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
64%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
27%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
75%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.92

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
58%
level
22%
Beijing Renhe scores more
20%

Shanghai Shenhua at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 1–3 Beijing Renhe

Beijing Renhe beat Shanghai Shenhua 3-1 in Super League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium in Shanghai.