Shanghai Segenda 1–1 Shangyu Pterosaur

Shanghai Segenda

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shangyu Pterosaur

Tian Hubo 4'

Huo Liang 90+4'

4/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundJinshan Sports Center Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shanghai Segenda70%

×Draw18%

Shangyu Pterosaur12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai SegendaExpected goals in this matchShangyu Pterosaur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.78

Shanghai Segenda

2.23

Shangyu Pterosaur

0.78

Shanghai Segenda creates 186% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

0.80

0.75

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Shanghai Segenda

2.25

Shangyu Pterosaur

0.80

allows per match

Shanghai Segenda

0.75

Shangyu Pterosaur

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Segenda+0.00on par

Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Segenda ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shanghai Segenda or draw

88%

Shanghai Segenda or Shangyu Pterosaur

82%

Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur

30%

Winning margin

Shanghai Segenda wins by 2+

46%

Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+

Team goals

Shanghai Segenda 1+ goals

89%

Shanghai Segenda 2+ goals

65%

Shanghai Segenda 3+ goals

38%

Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals

54%

Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals

18%

Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Shanghai Segenda (draw refunded)

86%

Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Segenda at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Segenda attack 2.25 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.80 + Shanghai Segenda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Shanghai Segenda scores more

70%

level

18%

Shangyu Pterosaur scores more

12%

Shanghai Segenda at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Shanghai Segenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Tian Hubo

46'

Ji Yong← Wang Peng

46'

Chen Guokang← Wu Jialong

46'

Cao Jinlong← Li Shiwen

59'

Zheng Yifei← Xu Yongle

63'

Chen Rong← Li Endian

77'

Chen Zewen← Leng Jixuan

86'

Chen Shenji← Xiao Yangyang

90+3'

Yan Jiahao← Li Jianbin

90+4'

Huo Liang

Shanghai

Shangyu

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel

59'▲Zheng Yifei←▼Xu Yongle

86'▲Chen Shenji←▼Xiao Yangyang

90+3'▲Yan Jiahao←▼Li Jianbin

Shanghai Segenda substitutes

9Yifei7Shenji13Jiahao3Jiajie5Guorong8Wei10Feng12Junhui16Jun22Meng24Kaiyuan28Yilin

Manager: Xie Yuxin

46'▲Ji Yong←▼Wang Peng

46'▲Chen Guokang←▼Wu Jialong

46'▲Cao Jinlong←▼Li Shiwen

63'▲Chen Rong←▼Li Endian

77'▲Chen Zewen←▼Leng Jixuan

Shangyu Pterosaur substitutes

8Yong9Guokang54Jinlong11Rong30Zewen1Shang4Pengju21Xiaolong53Keqi55Zhilüe

Match Recap: Shanghai Segenda vs Shangyu Pterosaur

Shanghai Segenda and Shangyu Pterosaur drew 1-1 in FA Cup on April 20, 2024.

Goals: Tian Hubo (4'), Huo Liang (90+4').

The match was played at Jinshan Sports Center Outfield in Shanghai.

Shanghai Segenda vs Shangyu Pterosaur — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shanghai Segenda vs Shangyu Pterosaur