Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai Segenda vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — FA Cup 2019

Shanghai Segenda
Shanghai Segenda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
4/19/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundShanghai Liancheng Football Base Field No. 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shanghai Segenda37%
×Draw23%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Segenda
1.63
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shanghai Segenda
2.25
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
2.60

allows per match

Shanghai Segenda
0.75
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.00

finishing

Shanghai Segenda+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Segenda ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Shanghai Segenda or draw
60%
Shanghai Segenda or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
77%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
63%

Winning margin

Shanghai Segenda wins by 2+
19%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shanghai Segenda 1+ goals
80%
Shanghai Segenda 2+ goals
48%
Shanghai Segenda 3+ goals
22%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
81%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
50%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Segenda (draw refunded)
49%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Segenda at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Segenda attack 2.25 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 2.60 + Shanghai Segenda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shanghai Segenda scores more
37%
level
23%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
40%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shanghai Segenda 0 – 2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Shanghai Segenda 2-0 in FA Cup on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Shanghai Liancheng Football Base Field No. 2 in Shanghai.