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Shanghai Port II vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Shanghai Port II
Shanghai Port II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
7/14/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Jinshan Sports Center Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Shanghai Port II54%
×Draw25%
Quanzhou Yassin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Port II
1.60
Quanzhou Yassin
0.90

Shanghai Port II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 47 away

creates per match

Shanghai Port II
1.42
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Shanghai Port II
1.03
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Shanghai Port II+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Port II ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shanghai Port II or draw
79%
Shanghai Port II or Quanzhou Yassin
75%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
46%

Winning margin

Shanghai Port II wins by 2+
29%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shanghai Port II 1+ goals
80%
Shanghai Port II 2+ goals
47%
Shanghai Port II 3+ goals
22%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
59%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
23%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Port II (draw refunded)
72%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Port II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Port II attack 1.42 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Shanghai Port II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shanghai Port II scores more
54%
level
25%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
21%

Shanghai Port II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shanghai Port II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shanghai Port II 3–2 Quanzhou Yassin

Shanghai Port II beat Quanzhou Yassin 3-2 in League Two on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Jinshan Sports Center Outfield in Shanghai.