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Shanghai Port II vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Shanghai Port II
Shanghai Port II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
3/31/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Jinshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shanghai Port II53%
×Draw24%
Hunan Billows FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Port II
1.67
Hunan Billows FC
0.98

Shanghai Port II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shanghai Port II
1.42
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Shanghai Port II
1.03
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Shanghai Port II+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Port II ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shanghai Port II or draw
78%
Shanghai Port II or Hunan Billows FC
76%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
47%

Winning margin

Shanghai Port II wins by 2+
29%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shanghai Port II 1+ goals
81%
Shanghai Port II 2+ goals
50%
Shanghai Port II 3+ goals
23%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
62%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
26%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Port II (draw refunded)
71%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Port II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Port II attack 1.42 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Shanghai Port II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shanghai Port II scores more
53%
level
24%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
22%

Shanghai Port II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shanghai Port II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Port II vs Hunan Billows FC

Shanghai Port II and Hunan Billows FC drew 2-2 in League Two on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Jinshan Sports Center Stadium in Shanghai.