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Shanghai Port II vs Hainan Star — League Two 2022

Shanghai Port II
Shanghai Port II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hainan Star
Hainan Star
5/25/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Jinshan Sports Center Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Shanghai Port II53%
×Draw25%
Hainan Star23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Port II
1.61
Hainan Star
0.96

Shanghai Port II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 48 away

creates per match

Shanghai Port II
1.42
Hainan Star
0.88

allows per match

Shanghai Port II
1.03
Hainan Star
1.81

finishing

Shanghai Port II+0.00on par
Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Port II ↓

Hainan Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shanghai Port II or draw
77%
Shanghai Port II or Hainan Star
75%
Draw or Hainan Star
47%

Winning margin

Shanghai Port II wins by 2+
28%
Hainan Star wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shanghai Port II 1+ goals
80%
Shanghai Port II 2+ goals
48%
Shanghai Port II 3+ goals
22%
Hainan Star 1+ goals
62%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
25%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Port II (draw refunded)
70%
Hainan Star (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Port II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Port II attack 1.42 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Shanghai Port II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shanghai Port II scores more
53%
level
25%
Hainan Star scores more
23%

Shanghai Port II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shanghai Port II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shanghai Port II 6–1 Hainan Star

Shanghai Port II beat Hainan Star 6-1 in League Two on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Jinshan Sports Center Outfield in Shanghai.