Shanghai Jiading 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

Shanghai Jiading

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nantong Zhiyun

A. Kolev 22'

7/13/2025

League One · Round 16Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Shanghai Jiading35%

×Draw30%

Nantong Zhiyun35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai JiadingExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.03

Shanghai Jiading

1.02

Nantong Zhiyun

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

1.05

creates per match

0.91

1.15

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading

1.05

Nantong Zhiyun

0.91

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading

1.15

Nantong Zhiyun

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw

65%

Shanghai Jiading or Nantong Zhiyun

70%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

65%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

13%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

64%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

27%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

8%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

64%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

28%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

50%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.05 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.91 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more

35%

level

30%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

35%

Shanghai Jiading at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Kolev↳ Chen Binbin

24'

Y. Wu← Wang Haoran

59'

Huang Ming← Yu Haozhen

60'

Du Changjie← Bai Jiajun

63'

Jia Boyan← Chen Binbin

72'

A. Lukovic

78'

Jiang Zilei← Xu Hui

78'

Liu Ye← Jiang Kaihua

78'

Nan Xiaoheng← I. Ivanovic

85'

Luo Xin← Hu Mingfei

90+2'

Jiang Zilei

90+4'

Qiu Tianyi← Su Shihao

Shanghai

Nantong

1

Guanxi

2

▼

Hui

33

Haoran

25

Kang

6

▼

Mingfei

5

Sheng

10

▼

Ivanovic

26

Palocevic

20

⚽

Kolev

23

▼

Kaihua

11

A

▼

Binbin

22

Xiang

32

Lukovic

23

▼

29

14

30

26

▼

Shihao

37

▼

Haozhen

9

Coffey

33

Baojie

16

▼

Haoran

Manager: Zoran Janković

24'▲Y. Wu←▼Wang Haoran

59'▲Huang Ming←▼Yu Haozhen

60'▲Du Changjie←▼Bai Jiajun

90+4'▲Qiu Tianyi←▼Su Shihao

Shanghai Jiading substitutes

1Yupeng28Jingyi25Xin15Le8Chunjie40Ming7Tianyu2Xinlei5Tianyi12Changjie20Wu36Junhao

Manager: Dae-Eui Kim

63'▲Jia Boyan←▼Chen Binbin

78'▲Jiang Zilei←▼Xu Hui

78'▲Liu Ye←▼Jiang Kaihua

78'▲Nan Xiaoheng←▼I. Ivanovic

85'▲Luo Xin←▼Hu Mingfei

Nantong Zhiyun substitutes

16Jin13Lei4Xin8Kamiran27Shuming37Boyan21Jiapeng18Zilei14Weicheng39Ye19Xiaoheng7Daochi