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Shanghai Jiading vs Jiangxi Liansheng — League One 2026

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
7/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 17Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shanghai Jiading42%
×Draw27%
Jiangxi Liansheng31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.35
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.11

Shanghai Jiading creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 73 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.11
Jiangxi Liansheng
0.95

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.27
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.59

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
69%
Shanghai Jiading or Jiangxi Liansheng
73%
Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng
58%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
20%
Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
74%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
39%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
15%
Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
67%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
30%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
58%
Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
42%
level
27%
Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
31%

Shanghai Jiading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shanghai Jiading 3–1 Jiangxi Liansheng

Shanghai Jiading beat Jiangxi Liansheng 3-1 in League One on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.