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Shanghai Jiading vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2026

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
9/20/2025League OneLeague One · Round 23Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shanghai Jiading38%
×Draw29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.17
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.06

Shanghai Jiading creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.00
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
0.96

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.17
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.33

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
67%
Shanghai Jiading or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
71%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
62%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
16%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
69%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
33%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
11%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
65%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
54%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.00 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 0.96 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
38%
level
29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
33%

Shanghai Jiading at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Jiading vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Shanghai Jiading 2-0 in League One on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.