Shanghai Jiading vs Hebei Kungfu — League One 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 62+ matches
Shanghai Jiading32%
Hebei Kungfu39%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hebei Kungfu creates 13% more chances
Season form · 62 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shanghai Jiading ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches
Hebei Kungfu away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Hebei Kungfu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07
Hebei Kungfu attack 1.14 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Hebei Kungfu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kunshan
Qingdao Jonoon
Nantong ZhiyunHebei Kungfu
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Suzhou Dongwu
Sichuan Jiuniu
Nanjing City
Qingdao Youth Island
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Guangxi Baoyun
Shenyang UrbanShanghai Jiading
Jiangxi Liansheng
Zibo Cuju
Beijing Baxy
Xinjiang Tianshan
BITIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shanghai Jiading host Hebei Kungfu on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 06:30. The match is part of the League One 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Shanghai Jiading vs Hebei Kungfu
Hebei Kungfu beat Shanghai Jiading 1-0 in League One on October 26, 2024.
Goals: 3 Ablikim Abdusalam (90+13' pen).
The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.