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San Jose Earthquakes vs Whitecaps — Major League Soccer 2026

San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Whitecaps
Whitecaps
4/12/2015Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 6Avaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

San Jose Earthquakes42%
×Draw30%
Whitecaps28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jose Earthquakes
1.19
Whitecaps
0.92

San Jose Earthquakes creates 29% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 3 away

creates per match

San Jose Earthquakes
1.70
Whitecaps
0.33

allows per match

San Jose Earthquakes
1.50
Whitecaps
0.67

finishing

San Jose Earthquakes+0.00on par
Whitecaps+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jose Earthquakes ↓

Whitecaps →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes or draw
72%
San Jose Earthquakes or Whitecaps
70%
Draw or Whitecaps
58%

Winning margin

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
18%
Whitecaps wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
70%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
33%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
12%
Whitecaps 1+ goals
60%
Whitecaps 2+ goals
23%
Whitecaps 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
60%
Whitecaps (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 44 matches

Whitecaps away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.70 + Whitecaps defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Whitecaps attack 0.33 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Jose Earthquakes scores more
42%
level
30%
Whitecaps scores more
28%

San Jose Earthquakes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Major League Soccer: San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Whitecaps

San Jose Earthquakes beat Whitecaps 1-0 in Major League Soccer on April 12, 2015.

The match was played at Avaya Stadium in San Jose.