Shandong Taishan II 4–1 Tai'an Tiankuang

Shandong Taishan II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tai'an Tiankuang

6/28/2025

League Two · Round 16Zoucheng Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shandong Taishan II48%

×Draw27%

Tai'an Tiankuang25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong Taishan IIExpected goals in this matchTai'an Tiankuang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.97

Shandong Taishan II

1.45

Tai'an Tiankuang

0.97

Shandong Taishan II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 54 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

0.87

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shandong Taishan II

1.58

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.07

allows per match

Shandong Taishan II

0.87

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Taishan II+0.00on par

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Taishan II ↓

Tai'an Tiankuang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shandong Taishan II or draw

75%

Shandong Taishan II or Tai'an Tiankuang

73%

Draw or Tai'an Tiankuang

52%

Winning margin

Shandong Taishan II wins by 2+

24%

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shandong Taishan II 1+ goals

77%

Shandong Taishan II 2+ goals

42%

Shandong Taishan II 3+ goals

18%

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

62%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

25%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shandong Taishan II (draw refunded)

66%

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Taishan II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Tai'an Tiankuang away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Taishan II attack 1.58 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.07 + Shandong Taishan II defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shandong Taishan II scores more

48%

level

27%

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

25%

Shandong Taishan II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shandong Taishan II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff