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Shandong Taishan II vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Shandong Taishan II
Shandong Taishan II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
10/5/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 8Zoucheng Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shandong Taishan II57%
×Draw23%
Hunan Billows FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Taishan II
1.75
Hunan Billows FC
0.91

Shandong Taishan II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shandong Taishan II
1.58
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Shandong Taishan II
0.87
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Shandong Taishan II+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Taishan II ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shandong Taishan II or draw
81%
Shandong Taishan II or Hunan Billows FC
77%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
43%

Winning margin

Shandong Taishan II wins by 2+
32%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shandong Taishan II 1+ goals
83%
Shandong Taishan II 2+ goals
52%
Shandong Taishan II 3+ goals
25%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
60%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
23%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shandong Taishan II (draw refunded)
75%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Taishan II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Taishan II attack 1.58 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Shandong Taishan II defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shandong Taishan II scores more
57%
level
23%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
19%

Shandong Taishan II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shandong Taishan II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shandong Taishan II vs Hunan Billows FC

Shandong Taishan II beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Zoucheng Sports Center in Zoucheng.