Shandong Luneng 0–0 Home United: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Home United

4/21/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shandong Luneng51%

×Draw23%

Home United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchHome United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.32

Shandong Luneng

1.89

Home United

1.32

Shandong Luneng creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.94

creates per match

0.83

1.81

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.94

Home United

0.83

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

1.81

Home United

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Home United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Home United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

73%

Shandong Luneng or Home United

77%

Draw or Home United

49%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

29%

Home United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

85%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

56%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

29%

Home United 1+ goals

73%

Home United 2+ goals

38%

Home United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

65%

Home United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Home United away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.94 + Home United defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.89

Home United attack 0.83 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

51%

level

23%

Home United scores more

27%

Shandong Luneng at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff