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Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
12/26/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Championship Round - 5Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shandong Luneng68%
×Draw18%
Hebei Zhongji14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
2.29
Hebei Zhongji
0.91

Shandong Luneng creates 152% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
2.23
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
0.88
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
86%
Shandong Luneng or Hebei Zhongji
82%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
32%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
45%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
90%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
66%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
40%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
60%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
23%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
83%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
68%
level
18%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
14%

Shandong Luneng at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji

Shandong Luneng beat Hebei Zhongji 2-0 in Super League on December 26, 2021.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Canton.