Shandong Luneng 4–1 Dalian Zhixing: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dalian Zhixing

Xie Wenneng 90'

Guilherme Madruga 85'

Zeca 57'

Cryzan 12'

Fernando Karanga 20'

2/28/2025

Super League · Round 2Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Shandong Luneng59%

×Draw22%

Dalian Zhixing19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.99

Shandong Luneng

1.91

Dalian Zhixing

0.99

Shandong Luneng creates 93% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.93

creates per match

1.07

0.90

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.93

Dalian Zhixing

1.07

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.90

Dalian Zhixing

1.89

+0.78scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.78scores more

Dalian Zhixing+0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

81%

Shandong Luneng or Dalian Zhixing

78%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

41%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

35%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

85%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

57%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

30%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

63%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

26%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

75%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.90 · 7 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.93 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.91

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.07 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

59%

level

22%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

19%

Shandong Luneng at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Cryzan

Shandong Luneng · F

10.0

Match Events

12'

Cryzan↳ Y. Li

20'

Fernando Karanga↳ W. Mao

24'

Fernando KarangaCard upgrade

26'

Fernando Karanga

34'

Xie Wenneng← Peng Xinli

39'

Xinghan Wu

46'

Guilherme Madruga← Huang Zhengyu

46'

Zhang Chi← Liu Yang

52'

Zheng Zheng

55'

Liu Zhurun← W. Mao

57'

Zeca↳ Cryzan

68'

Wenneng XieGoal cancelled

73'

Cui Qi← Wen Jiabao

73'

Liao Jintao← Z. Labyad

76'

CryzanGoal cancelled

79'

A. Abudulam← Zeca

85'

Guilherme Madruga↳ V. Qazaishvili

87'

Jintao Liao

87'

P. Zhu← Lu Zhuoyi

87'

Liu Yi← Lu Peng

88'

Bi Jinhao← V. Qazaishvili

90'

Xie Wenneng↳ Cryzan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShandongDalian

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots9

1.95Expected Goals (xG)0.82

5Corners6

22Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots9

10On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked3

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

488Total Passes314

399Accurate Passes215

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

22Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

6Offsides1