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Shandong Luneng vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
4/15/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shandong Luneng30%
×Draw21%
Daegu FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
1.57
Daegu FC
2.05

Daegu FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
1.94
Daegu FC
2.30

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
1.81
Daegu FC
1.20

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
51%
Shandong Luneng or Daegu FC
79%
Draw or Daegu FC
70%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
14%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
79%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
46%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
21%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
87%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
61%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
38%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.94 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
30%
level
21%
Daegu FC scores more
49%

Daegu FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Shandong Luneng 0–7 Daegu FC

Daegu FC beat Shandong Luneng 7-0 in AFC Champions League on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Khao Kradong Stadium in Buriram.