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Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
7/24/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Shandong Luneng59%
×Draw21%
Chongqing Lifan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
2.00
Chongqing Lifan
1.06

Shandong Luneng creates 89% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 50 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
2.23
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
0.88
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
80%
Shandong Luneng or Chongqing Lifan
79%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
41%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
35%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
86%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
59%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
32%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
65%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
29%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
75%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
59%
level
21%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
20%

Shandong Luneng at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shandong Luneng 3–1 Chongqing Lifan

Shandong Luneng beat Chongqing Lifan 3-1 in Super League on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Guangzhou.