Shandong Luneng 3–1 Central Coast Mariners

Shandong Luneng

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Central Coast Mariners

V. Qazaishvili 88', 74'

Bi Jinhao 8'

Mikael Doka 45+9' (pen)

9/17/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 1Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shandong Luneng55%

×Draw20%

Central Coast Mariners25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.53

Shandong Luneng

2.34

Central Coast Mariners

1.53

Shandong Luneng creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.94

creates per match

1.25

1.81

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.94

Central Coast Mariners

1.25

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

1.81

Central Coast Mariners

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

75%

Shandong Luneng or Central Coast Mariners

80%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

45%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

34%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

90%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

67%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

41%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

78%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

45%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

69%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.94 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.34

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.25 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

55%

level

20%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

25%

Shandong Luneng at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

V. Qazaishvili

Shandong Luneng · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

17'

35'

45+6'

45+10'

45+8'

45+5'

Brad TappPenalty confirmed

45+9'

Mikael DokaPenalty

46'

Shi Ke← Liu Yang

60'

Cryzan← Xie Wenneng

69'

S. Roux← Mikael Doka

70'

Liao Lisheng← Peng Xinli

70'

B. Brandtman← R. Edmondson

74'

V. Qazaishvili↳ Liao Lisheng

81'

Pedro Delgado← Li Yuanyi

81'

Chen Pu← Bi Jinhao

83'

A. De Lima← Vitor Feijão

88'

V. Qazaishvili↳ Liao Lisheng

90+3'

N. Duarte← A. Kuol

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShandongCentral

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots14

3Corners8

18Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target5

4Off Target6

5Blocked3

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

267Total Passes441

204Accurate Passes374

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs Central Coast Mariners

Shandong Luneng beat Central Coast Mariners 3-1 in AFC Champions League on September 17, 2024.

Goals: Bi Jinhao (8'), Mikael Doka (45+9' pen), V. Qazaishvili (74', 88').

Central Coast Mariners controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Ji'nan.

Shandong Luneng vs Central Coast Mariners — AFC Champions League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs Central Coast Mariners