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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saipa
Saipa
A. A. Arabi 90+1'
A. Nasai 68'
M. Papi 65'
R. Jafari 42'
10/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin56%
×Draw25%
Saipa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.56
Saipa
0.78

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 100% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
81%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Saipa
75%
Draw or Saipa
44%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
30%
Saipa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
79%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
46%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
21%
Saipa 1+ goals
54%
Saipa 2+ goals
18%
Saipa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
75%
Saipa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.56

Saipa attack 0.75 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
56%
level
25%
Saipa scores more
19%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
R. Jafari
65'
M. Papi
68'
A. Nasai
90+1'
A. A. Arabi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shams Azar Qazvin 4–0 Saipa

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Saipa 4-0 in Azadegan League on October 18, 2022.

Goals: R. Jafari (42'), M. Papi (65'), A. Nasai (68'), A. A. Arabi (90+1').

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.