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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
1 – 2
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
1/28/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin60%
×Draw23%
Qashqai Shiraz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.77
Qashqai Shiraz
0.82

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 116% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 69 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
83%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Qashqai Shiraz
77%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
40%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
34%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
83%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
53%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
26%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
56%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
20%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
78%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
60%
level
23%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
17%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shams Azar Qazvin 1–2 Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Shams Azar Qazvin 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.