Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
5/28/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin24%
×Draw29%
Persepolis FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.82
Persepolis FC
1.30

Persepolis FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 116 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.98
Persepolis FC
1.39

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.21
Persepolis FC
0.66

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
52%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Persepolis FC
71%
Draw or Persepolis FC
76%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
7%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
56%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
20%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
5%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
73%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
37%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
33%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.98 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.82

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
24%
level
29%
Persepolis FC scores more
48%

Persepolis FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Shams Azar Qazvin 3-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.