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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Malavan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
5/11/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 27Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin37%
×Draw31%
Malavan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.05
Malavan
0.95

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 54 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.98
Malavan
0.69

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.21
Malavan
1.13

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
68%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Malavan
69%
Draw or Malavan
63%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
15%
Malavan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
65%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
28%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
9%
Malavan 1+ goals
61%
Malavan 2+ goals
25%
Malavan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
54%
Malavan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.98 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Malavan attack 0.69 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
37%
level
31%
Malavan scores more
32%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Shams Azar Qazvin 1–0 Malavan

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Malavan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.