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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Darya Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Darya Babol
Darya Babol
1/25/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin59%
×Draw24%
Darya Babol17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.66
Darya Babol
0.76

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 118% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Darya Babol
0.71

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Darya Babol
1.12

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Darya Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
83%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Darya Babol
76%
Draw or Darya Babol
41%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
33%
Darya Babol wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
81%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
49%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
23%
Darya Babol 1+ goals
53%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
18%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
78%
Darya Babol (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
59%
level
24%
Darya Babol scores more
17%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shams Azar Qazvin 1–1 Darya Babol

Shams Azar Qazvin and Darya Babol drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on January 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.