Shams Azar Qazvin 3–1 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Shams Azar Qazvin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chadormalu SC

R. Jafari 59', 14'

P. Sarabadani 37'

P. Bali Lashak 19'

4/22/2023

Azadegan League · Round 30Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin47%

×Draw27%

Chadormalu SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shams Azar QazvinExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.98

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.41

Chadormalu SC

0.98

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

2.20

creates per match

1.16

0.80

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

2.20

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.80

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw

74%

Shams Azar Qazvin or Chadormalu SC

73%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

53%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

23%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

76%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

41%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

17%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

62%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

26%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

64%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

47%

level

27%

Chadormalu SC scores more

26%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Jafari

19'

P. Bali Lashak

37'

P. Sarabadani

59'

R. Jafari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff