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Shamrock Rovers W vs Sligo Rovers W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Shamrock Rovers W
Shamrock Rovers W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sligo Rovers W
Sligo Rovers W
E. Corbet 90+2'
T. Kinnevey 13'
E. Kelly 4'
S. Stephens 18'
5/9/2026All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shamrock Rovers W68%
×Draw18%
Sligo Rovers W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers W
2.46
Sligo Rovers W
1.04

Shamrock Rovers W creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers W
2.25
Sligo Rovers W
0.83

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers W
1.25
Sligo Rovers W
2.67

finishing

Shamrock Rovers W+0.00on par
Sligo Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers W ↓

Sligo Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers W or draw
86%
Shamrock Rovers W or Sligo Rovers W
82%
Draw or Sligo Rovers W
32%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers W wins by 2+
46%
Sligo Rovers W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers W 1+ goals
91%
Shamrock Rovers W 2+ goals
70%
Shamrock Rovers W 3+ goals
44%
Sligo Rovers W 1+ goals
65%
Sligo Rovers W 2+ goals
28%
Sligo Rovers W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers W (draw refunded)
83%
Sligo Rovers W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Sligo Rovers W away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers W attack 2.25 + Sligo Rovers W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Sligo Rovers W attack 0.83 + Shamrock Rovers W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shamrock Rovers W scores more
68%
level
18%
Sligo Rovers W scores more
14%

Shamrock Rovers W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
E. Kelly
13'
T. Kinnevey
18'
S. Stephens
90+2'
E. Corbet

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Shamrock Rovers W 3–1 Sligo Rovers W

Shamrock Rovers W beat Sligo Rovers W 3-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on May 9, 2026.

Goals: E. Kelly (4'), T. Kinnevey (13'), S. Stephens (18'), E. Corbet (90+2').