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Shamrock Rovers vs Wexford — FAI Cup 2026

Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wexford
Wexford
D. Mandroiu 90'
R. Gaffney 84'
G. Burke 76'
V. Ozhianvuna 8'
7/18/2025FAI CupFAI Cup · 2nd RoundTallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shamrock Rovers68%
×Draw19%
Wexford13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Wexford
0.82

Shamrock Rovers creates 167% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers
2.78
Wexford
1.30

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers
0.33
Wexford
1.60

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw
87%
Shamrock Rovers or Wexford
81%
Draw or Wexford
32%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
44%
Wexford wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
89%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
64%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
37%
Wexford 1+ goals
56%
Wexford 2+ goals
20%
Wexford 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
84%
Wexford (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 2.78 + Wexford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Wexford attack 1.30 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more
68%
level
19%
Wexford scores more
13%

Shamrock Rovers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
V. Ozhianvuna
76'
G. Burke
84'
R. Gaffney
90'
D. Mandroiu
Shamrock
Wexford
Stephen Bradley
Manager: Stephen Bradley
S. Elliott
Manager: S. Elliott

FAI Cup: Shamrock Rovers 4–0 Wexford

Shamrock Rovers beat Wexford 4-0 in FAI Cup on July 18, 2025.

Goals: V. Ozhianvuna (8'), G. Burke (76'), R. Gaffney (84'), D. Mandroiu (90').

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.