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Shamrock Rovers vs Treaty United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
FT
2 – 1
Treaty United
Treaty United
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Roadstone Sports & Social Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shamrock Rovers77%
×Draw15%
Treaty United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers
2.60
Treaty United
0.72

Shamrock Rovers creates 261% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers
3.00
Treaty United
1.20

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers
0.25
Treaty United
2.20

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par
Treaty United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Treaty United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw
92%
Shamrock Rovers or Treaty United
85%
Draw or Treaty United
23%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
56%
Treaty United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
92%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
73%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
47%
Treaty United 1+ goals
51%
Treaty United 2+ goals
16%
Treaty United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
90%
Treaty United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Treaty United away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 3.00 + Treaty United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Treaty United attack 1.20 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more
77%
level
15%
Treaty United scores more
8%

Shamrock Rovers at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Treaty United

Shamrock Rovers beat Treaty United 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Roadstone Sports & Social Club in Dublin.