Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Galway United: Result & Stats

Shamrock Rovers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Galway United

10/29/2025

Premier Division · Round 33Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shamrock Rovers56%

×Draw25%

Galway United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock RoversExpected goals in this matchGalway United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.80

Shamrock Rovers

1.59

Galway United

0.80

Shamrock Rovers creates 99% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 48 away

1.98

creates per match

0.90

0.71

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.98

Galway United

0.90

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers

0.71

Galway United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Galway United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Galway United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw

81%

Shamrock Rovers or Galway United

75%

Draw or Galway United

44%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

30%

Galway United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

80%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

47%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

21%

Galway United 1+ goals

55%

Galway United 2+ goals

19%

Galway United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

75%

Galway United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Galway United away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.98 + Galway United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.59

Galway United attack 0.90 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more

56%

level

25%

Galway United scores more

19%

Shamrock Rovers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff