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Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk — Premier Division 2019

Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dundalk
Dundalk
2/16/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 1Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Shamrock Rovers53%
×Draw25%
Dundalk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers
1.60
Dundalk
0.95

Shamrock Rovers creates 68% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 111 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers
1.98
Dundalk
1.19

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers
0.71
Dundalk
1.23

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw
78%
Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk
75%
Draw or Dundalk
47%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
28%
Dundalk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
80%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
47%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
22%
Dundalk 1+ goals
61%
Dundalk 2+ goals
25%
Dundalk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
70%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.98 + Dundalk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dundalk attack 1.19 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more
53%
level
25%
Dundalk scores more
22%

Shamrock Rovers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Division: Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Dundalk

Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk drew 1-1 in Premier Division on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.